2021 March CAD
3.75%
MTD
11.56%
YTD
Monthly Performance (net of all fees)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.40 | 3.99 | 3.75 | 11.56% | |||||||||
| 2020 | 0.41 | -.20 | -1.91 | .74 | 1.66 | 2.25 | 1.26 | 3.13 | 1.10 | 0.57 | 2.04 | 3.15 | 15.02% |
| 2019 | 1.72 | 1.79 | 3.13 | 1.15 | 1.35 | -0.75 | -1.54 | -1.34 | 0.04 | -1.45 | -2.57 | 1.39 | 2.76% |
| 2018 | 6.36 | 4.81 | 0.95 | 0.71 | -0.85 | -1.07 | 2.50 | 1.69 | 3.53 | 0.67 | 0.02 | -0.18 | 20.58% |
| 2017 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.77 | 0.12 | 3.27 | 3.61 | 13.96 | 1.96 | 31.51% |
| 2016 | 1.59 | 3.30 | 1.53 | -0.82 | 5.67% |
Risk vs. Return Comparisons Across Indexes
| Month Return | YTD Return | Volatility | Sharpe | Sortino | Beta | Best Month | Worst Month | Annualized | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravel | 3.75% | 11.56% | 8.56% | 2.05 | 7.11 | 1.00 | 13.96% | -2.57% | 18.87% |
| S&P 500 | 4.38% | 6.17% | 15.5% | 1.04 | 1.28 | 0.11 | 12.82% | -12.35% | 16.31% | S&P/TSX | 3.87% | 8.06% | 14.06% | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 10.79% | -17.38% | 8.84% |
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words.....
Dear Partners,
For the month of March, the Caravel Capital Fund Ltd was up 3.75%.
This month will be providing a mostly illustrated commentary...
We believe stock markets are about here...
Which leads us to think, this is where it is heading...
Since we tend to behave like this...
We are doing this...
On a more serious note, we have included below a chart from Factset, a large independent market think tank who released this on April 1, 2021. The chart shows the cumulative forecasted earnings of the Standard and Poor's 500 companies relative to its Standard and Poor's 500 Index going back 10 years. We did not forecast the pandemic, but we did see the excessive valuation against an optimistic earnings outlook at the end of 2019. We were rewarded for our prudence. Fast forward to today…. looking at the ROSY earnings expectation against the current market levels implies a 22X forward PE (price/earnings) multiple. Historically, this PE has only been exceeded by March of 2000 when it reached 25X. We have moved the portfolio into market neutral strategies and hedged up the exposure that we took post the US election. We feel very comfortable with where we are sitting.
We hope you enjoyed the colorful vignette, it was intended to better prepare you for the more sobering chart and paragraph at the end.
We thank you for your confidence and capital.
Glen & Jeff - Caravel Capital